'Surpassing' the favorite to win the Ballon d'Or

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Barcelona Getafe

10/10/26 18:30:00

1.05 13.00 34.00

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Latest news in the Ballon d'Or. The individual award entered its decisive phase with Lamine Yamal ahead of Harry Kane in the prediction market, after the Barcelona player rose from 28% to 45% in estimated winning chances in just a few hours. The 2026 voting closed at the end of September, and the ceremony is scheduled for October 26, 2026 in London.

Lamine Yamal overtakes Harry Kane in the Ballon d'Or

The shift occurred after several weeks where Kane was the main favorite in the markets. The Bayern striker reached up to 56% of estimated probability, while Yamal was at 28%.

The difference narrowed down to become a nearly equal battle. In the latest available data, Lamine Yamal reached 45% against 42% for Harry Kane, a change reflecting the evolution of bets and prediction markets, not the official voting result.

The market had already shown a favorable trend towards Kane for a large part of the season. Spanish media quotes placed the Englishman at 1.65, compared to 3.75 for Yamal, before the gap started to shrink.

The reasons for the shift are unconfirmed. Among the possibilities speculated in the markets are unofficial information about the voting and the impact of certain sporting events, such as the England-Spain match of the Nations League held at Wembley, where Lamine Yamal scored a goal while Kane missed a penalty. None of these hypotheses allow knowing the actual voting tendencies.

URGENT ‼️| Lamine Yamal surpasses Harry Kane and emerges as the top favorite to win the Ballon d'Or, according to Polymarket.

A few hours before the ceremony, the 19-year-old Spaniard could be crowned as the new king of world football. pic.twitter.com/lbwLkCAA2x

— Polymarket Español (@polymarketenesp) September 28, 2026

The Ballon d'Or favorite is decided at the polls

Kane holds a relevant statistical argument in the Ballon d'Or race. The English forward concluded the 2025/26 season with 73 official goals between Bayern and the English national team, as recently reported by international media.

Yamal, on the other hand, closed the previous season with 24 goals and 18 assists in 45 matches with Barcelona, according to the published records of his season.

The 2026 context differs from the previous edition. In 2025, Yamal finished second in the Ballon d'Or, behind Ousmane Dembélé, while Kane ended 13th in the official voting.

The upcoming reference will be the ceremony on October 26, 2026 in London when the official result is revealed, verifying if the latest market trend aligns with the jury's decision. The current percentages only reflect predictions; the Ballon d'Or winner will be determined through the official voting.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, "Sorpasso" en el favorito para ganar el Balón de Oro